The main objective of the Johannesburg-Pretoria Gautrain scheme was to lessen motor car traffic on the highway. When the project commenced, it was confidently believed that 100,000 passengers would be carried daily. In fact, a figure of 140,000 was mentioned on several occasions. In the unlikely event (as proponents put it) that fewer motorists opted to switch to the train, the Gauteng government would make up the shortfall in covering operating costs.
The original calculations confidently assumed that costly tolls due to be implemented on the highway in 2011 would strongly encourage motorists to use the train instead. However, introduction of the tolls has been postponed “indefinitely”. It is now expected that fewer people than foreseen will make the switch – especially since road improvements (ironically undertaken as a precursor to tolling) have lessened highway congestion. Additionally, the leaky tunnel south of Rosebank has put back opening of the southernmost section of Gautrain – to Park station on the edge of the CBD – by a year at least. It is currently thought it may open in April.
The bottom line is the Gauteng provincial government having to pay heavy operating subsidies in respect of Gautrain. Reportedly, an amount of some R280 million is to change hands in March 2012, in line with an “income guarantee” at the financial year-end because passenger totals and revenue have fallen short.
To meet the terms of the concession agreement, apparently, a further R360 million has been budgeted for the next three years.
Gautrain Management Agency CEO Jack van der Merwe says 34, 000 are using the train every day – a long way short of 100,000.
Original article [Railways Africa]
